Have the wheels fallen off Brawn GP?

For the first seven races of the 2009 F1 season, Brawn (and Jenson Button in particular) could do no wrong. They thumped everyone in all but the torrential rain-affected race in China, even when others looked to have the car to beat (namely Vettel at Turkey). As the circus hit the summer months, most people expected that form to continue, despite the recent updates to their closest challenger; Red Bull Renault.

However, that hasn't eventuated. Ok, so the Silverstone and Nurburgring domination by RBR can be explained away by the colder temperatures while the Brawn chassis seems to be like Jack Lemon and likes it hot...please note I said 'like Jack Lemon', not 'the car is a lemon'. However, the last race at Hungary can only be explained by one thing; they no longer have the best car on the grid.

RBR, Williams, Ferrari and, now, McLaren as well as Renault have seemed to, at the very least caught up if not surpassed the Brawn in performance. In a race where the Brawns were hoping to turn the tables on RBR, it didn't happen. Not only did one of their cars miss Q3 for the first time, the championship leader could only manage the eighth best time, giving him a few KERS cars in front of him as well as the dirty side of the grid...not the best place to start. Then in the race, things didn't get much better and the second best thing for Button (the best being Vettel having to retire obviously) was he was able to find a bit of speed in the second stint which allowed him to leapfrog Trulli for seventh while Barrichello could do no better than tenth.

The demonstration that was Australia now seems so very far away.

So what's going on?

Once a shoe-in for both titles, Brawn suddenly find themselves looking over their shoulder as RBR have come on strong and another couple of races like Hungary will see that lead reduced to nothing. As it stands, Button has 18.5 points over Webber while it's 15.5 between the two Constructors...still healthy, but not exactly the dead-certs it was before Silverstone.

This is starting to remind me a little of 1998 when McLaren bolted out of the gates, yet Ferrari were able to close the gap as the season went on, taking the title race to the final round in Japan. The only difference is that, unlike McLaren back then, it's doubtful that Brawn have the resources and/or money necessary to fight off RBR.

There is one saving grace....and that is RBR haven't yet thrown their weight behind just one of their drivers so Webber and Vettel have been taking points off each other. However, it might not matter as the title fight may be between those two now anyway.

We'll find out soon enough once their month hiatus is done.